With all things equal, draw odds is the percent chance you'll draw this tag as your first choice hunt. Depending on the state draw these odds represnt:
Last year the average draw odds for hunt 3174 was 84.8%.
Quotas are the number of limited licenses up for grabs. Quotas are only set for limited license hunts. As you probably guessed, there are often different quotas for residents and nonresidents. Obviously, over-the-counter licenses are not shown in this graph.
Often state agencies do not report actual resident/nonresident quota breakdowns. They'll say that they will be determined at the time of the draw. In those cases, we'll try to calculate an estimated quota based on actual historical draw results.
Last year the total quota for hunt 3174 was 325 licenses, and 325 licenses were reserved for residents.
Was the quota met in the draw, or is there a surplus of leftover tags? In popular units, there's rarely any surplus. It's worthy of note to mention that just because there may be a surplus, that doesn't mean that those licenses will be available to purchase as a leftover license.
Last year, there were 325 tags drawn, and there were 0 leftover tags (after the draw) available for hunt 3174.
How much competition do you have? Let's face it, in many competitive units when you don't get your first choice, you're not getting a tag.
Last year, there were 125 hunters who put hunt 3174 as their first choice.
In the past year, here's the breakdown of the number of points that applicants had prior to applying for hunt 22N_E_1_M_A_A_LL.
In addition to bonus point totals, you can see the draw odds for applicants with a specific number of bonus points. Use this to help increase your odds of drawing! Above you'll see the minimum points required needed to draw in the bonus point only round and the odds based on residency. The state of Arizona does not provide bonus point data split out by resident and nonresidents. So we simulate the draw odds based on available data.
In some very popular units in states where preference points are utilized, there's a problem we call point creep. And unless you've already collected a bunch of points in that state, you're probably best to bypass these hunts. It can be quite nasty.
Scouting for the earlier hunts should begin soon after being drawn. Scouting for the later hunts should wait until elk begin their seasonal shifts, which occur after the weather changes and things cool down significantly. There will be areas where elk are common in September, but are absent in December. Also, later hunts have seen an increase in the use of aircraft for scouting.